Initialized Prediction


Teaching: min
Exercises: min
  • What are Initialized Prediction Experiments?


Types of Experiments

Simulation: what the model thinks the climate looks like under certain conditions

These are not necessarily real conditions, they are typically idealized and do not correspond to any specific day or time. That is why we evaluate them using statistics (e.g. mean or variability over the simulation) and often compare these statistics between two simulations (e.g. a control and an experiment) or with the observed statistics.

Projection: what the model thinks the climate will look like in the future under different scenarios

Prediction: a forecast for a specific date given initial conditions for each component

These types of experiment correspond to the model attempting to predict actual conditions that occurred. We can compare directly between what the model predicted and what actually happened (observations).

Key Points